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UNC Alum, Ex-O Lineman with a different look on the state of College Football Follow me on Twitter @FootbawFrat for my sporadic thoughts throughout the day

Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Mid-Season Looksie at the ACC Coastal

The ACC Coastal never fails to disappoint, and especially hasn't in 2015. A team that the world expected (and me) to be successful coming off all guns a blazin in 2014 now find themselves well out of the ACC Coastal Division race. To reiterate to let's look at How I saw the ACC Coastal finishing this year.

1. Georgia Tech 9-3 (6-2 in conference)
T2. Carolina 9-3 (5-3 in conference)
T2. Virginia Tech 8-4 (5-3 in conference)
T2. Pittsburgh 8-4 (5-3 in conference)
5. The U 7-5 (4-4 in conference)
6. Duke 7-5 (3-5 in conference)
7. UVA 2-10 (1-7 in conference)

Current ACC Coastal Standings

1. Pittsburgh 5-1 (3-0 in conference)
T2. Duke 5-1 (2-0 in conference)
T2. North Carolina 5-1 (2-0 in conference)
T4. Miami 4-2 (1-1 in conference)
T4. UVA 2-4 (1-1 in conference)
6. Virginia Tech 3-4 (1-2 in conference)
7. Georgia Tech 2-5 (0-4)

Where I was Spot On:

North Carolina at 5-1

  • The route to 5-1 took a different route with Carolina stumbling out of the gate to Sakerlina, in a game where if you played 100 times Carolina would have won 95. Carolina took advantage of a much worse than advertised Georgia Tech squad rallying from 21 points down, earning their first win in Atlanta in 18 years. Carolina should take care of UVA this upcoming weekend before their back loaded schedule featuring roadies at Pitt, Virginia Tech, State and home games against Duke and Miami. Is Carolina a true coastal contender? We'll know by November 7th.
Miami at 4-2

  • Like North Carolina, the Canes find themselves exactly where I thought they'd be halfway through the year, but just a little bit different of a route to get there. Much like in many other years I fully expect Miami to engage in their late season swoon shortly after playing their one All World Game of the year. As I mentioned on the twittersphere yesterday, I list their Halloween date at Duke a prime candidate.
UVA at 2-4

  • UVA finds themselves soundly at 2-4 having traveling the route along the #MikeLondonFarewellTour I expected them to travel. UVA's beat the teams they were supposed to (both Bill and Mary and Cuse barely) and lost in hilarious fashion to the likes of Boise State and Notre Dame. The second half of UVA's schedule doesn't get any easier with UVA still having to face the likes of UNC. Duke, GT, VT, The U and Louisville. I can't see a game of those they'll be favored in. 

Duke at 5-1

  • Duke's one game better in the ACC than I expected thanks to how deplorable Georgia Tech's been, but is a game worse in out of conference thanks to their loss a now hemorrhaging Northwestern squad. I'm still convinced this team's been unchallenged this year and I saw that even with the respect I have for Coach Cutcliffe. Duke's next four are against Virginia Tech, Miami, UNC and Pitt. I fully expect Duke to split those four games best case scenario before rounding out the year with gimmes against Wake Forest and UVA.

Where I was close:

Pittsburgh at 5-1 (one game better)
  • While many folks are considering Pitt's performance this year a surprise, I'm quick to state that Pitt had all of the tools in place to make something happen in Narduzzi's first year. Even with James Conner's season ending injury (who they've missed) Pitt's program under Chryst and now under Narduzzi has been built around physical play at the Line of Scrimmage. Pitt's Offensive Line is arguably one of the best units in the conference. On defense, Pitt needed a jolt for the for the sneaky talented unit they have in the program: Narduzzi was that guy. Pitt may not light up the scoreboard, but damn, they just pound away at opposing teams. Can't forget, this teams a long filed goal away from being undefeated (only loss to currently undefeated Iowa)

Virginia Tech 3-4 (one game worse out of conference)

  • Virginia Tech, I thought you'd be 4-3 heading into your battle against Duke, having lost to the likes of Miami, Pitt and Ohio State. When you headed into half time against Ohio State, I was ready to wipe your season prediction clean from with the lead over Ohio State. An injured QB and injury to your best player on defense  and my prediction still looked dead on until the egg you laid in the second half against ECU. Where yo go from here? Start with defending your home turf against Duke. 
Where I was WAYYYYYYY off


Georgia Tech at 2-5 (3 games worse)

  • As I mentioned above, I bought into the Georgia Tech hype train earlier this year. I was as convinced as any that the combination of Paul Johnson and Justin Thomas would rule the ACC Coastal for a second straight year. Boy was I wrong. Georgia Tech's faced severe attrition in the backfield this year, finding only two reliable players in A Back Patrick Skov and newbie B Back Marcus Marshall. Outside of that Thomas is the only play maker on Georgia Tech's offense. The offensive line, despite returning 4 starters, has been a disappointment this year. The defense, like last year, hasn't been able to stop a beach ball and doesn't have the offense to bail them out. Ga Tech has an opportunity to save their season this upcoming weekend when they host Florida State (a team I expected them to beat this year). The Jackets can certainly beat FSU... will they? To be determined. 
Ok, Frat, How're folks gonna finish?

Here's how I see the Coastal playing out, besides the obvious (CHAOS)

T6. UVA - UVA had a brutal out of conference schedule and now they have a tough ACC finishing schedule. I saw this UVA team winning two games this year but I wouldn't be surprised to see them steal one down the stretch. UVA finishes 3-9 (2-6 in the ACC) and Mike London gets tossed following the VT Game.

T6. Georgia Tech - Georgia Tech ran themselves out of contention for the ACC title and would need a miracle to work their way back in. I think PJ and Co misses a bowl this year and the off season afterwards should be all sorts of fun. GT finishes 4-8 (2-6 in the ACC). Think PJ is kept after a 4 win season? I couldn't tell ya. 

5. Virginia Tech - Virginia Tech's done themselves no favors by losing to Miami and Pittsburgh if they want to be in the Coastal race. This past weekend was a virtual elimination game for the cause. If VT wants to be in Charlotte December 5th, they'll have to win out. I don't see that happening 
6-6 (4-4 in conference). Other predictions include that I'll be in attendence for Beamer's final game in Lane Stadium, Tech makes a bowl (barely) and a coach not named Shane or Bud is the HBC in BBurg next year. 

T3. Duke - My Carolina homer hat will probably get me in trouble on this prediction but I foresee a mid season derp coming from Duke. Duke hasn't played a soul yet this year with their best win looking like it came over Boston College. Duke goes 1-3 over the next 4 then finishes off with a pair of gimme wins (against Wake and UVA) to finish up the year. 8-4 (5-3 in the ACC).

T3. Miami - The Nation's still waiting on Miami to have their All-World performance that we see once a year. The main candidates are this upcoming weekend for a RETURN OF THE CLEMSONING or against Duke on Halloween. Road Night Games are ALWAYS a prime candidate for Miami to look like 2001 Miami so I'm gonna go with that. Miami will eventually drop a couple (GT and/or UVA) they have no business losing and the Miami fan base will dream of having Butch Davis return this off-season. Miami 8-4 (5-3 in the ACC)

T1. Carolina - Carolina, according to many are currently the favorites to win the Coastal and with a hot team currently 5-1, it's not out of bounds to think that. What worries me are two games: at Pittsburgh and at NC State. I still don't like how this defense matches up against physical offenses and Larry Fedora teams continue to ply much better in Kenan than they do on the road. Unfortunately I think the loss to Pittsburgh in about a week and a half is what keeps Carolina out of Charlotte this year. A loss I predicted early on. I really, really, REALLY, hope I'm wrong cause I'd love to be in my hometown December 5th. UNC finishes 9-3 (6-2 in the ACC)

T1. Pittsburgh - Welcome to the ACC, Coach Pat Narduzzi. Yours truly thinks that your squads 3-0 start in the ACC should be enough to hold off the other ACC Coastal contenders as y'all beat each other up over the next month and a half. I believe you'll get a win over Notre Dame when they come to Heinz Field as Pitt embarks on their most successful year since the Wannestedt Era. Y'all taking care of biz the way your team supposed to will land you in Charlotte with a date with the Clemson and FSU game winner. Y'all beating Carolina in Pittsburgh is the tie-breaker to propel y'all to Charlotte. Pitt finishes 9-3 (6-2 in the ACC)

That's enough #HotACCTakes for one Tuesday.

Enjoy 

WFP

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