ILLINOIS GAME PRIMER: PREDICTION TIME

Headed into this season, I penciled this game in as a sure win for the Tar Heels. I was confident, I thought that there would be little that Illinois would bring to Chapel Hill that would frustrate this team. Illinois has down seasons much like Carolina following the stud teams that Ron Zook cranked out several years back. They're off a 6-7 season, like Carolina, and possessed a defense that often looked lost and seldom stopped anyone. Sound familiar? I was even more confident in a win tomorrow when I heard about the Tim Beckman firing a week before the season started. However, the team that's rallied around interim coach Bill Cubit, is not the one that many envisioned coming to Chapel Hill.

When Carolina's On Offense:

Expect to a defense that will look oddly familiar. Illinois runs a base 4-3 under package utilizing two hybrid positions very similar to the ones that we saw under Koenning. Illinois is blitz heavy defense that tries to cause commotion and confusion in both defending the run and pass. They've been very effective against not-so-great competition at stopping the run, pilling up tackles for loss by the bundle. Expect to see run blitzes and getting after the quarterback from every gap, angle and level as the Fighting Illini will often through DBs on delays and zone blitzes frequently. Carolina Offensive Line and protectors must pass off their blocks soundly, play with strong techniques, and attack in run blocking. Illinois' defense has been very effective at stopping opposing offenses in general, giving up only 2.9 yards a play which ranks them currently at 4th in the country. 

A knock on the opposing defense that Carolina faces tomorrow is Illinois' ability to get to the passes, only registering one sack on the year. Illinois' front seven is not without talent, but they've struggled to get in the grill of the opposing QBs. The defensive line is the best unit this defense has to offer and for the Illini to have success against Carolina, they'll need to pressure Marquise. In the passing game, while the linebackers have decent range, by no means are they the athletes with speed that Carolina faced with Sakerlina. Illinois has a very good Will Linebacker in Mason Moneheim that's a tackling machine. Expect to hear his name called often. Also it would be wise for Carolina to recognize where Stong Safety Taylor Barton is lined up as he leads the nation with 3 interceptions on the year. He's however the bright spot of Illinois "okay" secondary.

When Carolina's On Defense

The Illinois Offense lives and dies by two factors:

1. The first, is Quarterback Wes Lunt's ability to sit comfortably in the pocket and zing out passes in a mid and long passing attack. The Illini offense has one true threat at receiver in Geronimo Allison with all everything receiver Mike Dudek sidelined with a torn ACL. Lunt's got the accuracy to pick any defense apart and is streaky when he's comfortable. Last year his offense didn't protect him and he struggled. If he's un-phased, he's a good as they come in the B1G. 
2. Establishing the outside run game. Illinois has had limited success the last couple years pounding the rock in between the tackles but they have found success stretching the run game outside with the speedy Running Back Josh Ferguson. If they ever take the run game inside, look for them to do it with a former Mr Tennessee, Ke'Shawn Vaughn. Both pose threats to Carolina's defense if tackling resorts back to the 2013 and 2014 issues. 

Carolina's front seven must get pressure on Wes Lunt. The Illinois passing attack will be one of the stronger units Carolina faces in 2015, specifically because of Lunt's ability and accuracy. The jury's still out on this secondary's effectiveness to defend against the air raid. Knowing Chizik and company, Carolina will force the Illini to become single dimensional by focusing on stopping the run. If the Carolina defensive line can get pressure against what I think is a very inconsistent offensive line, they'll be able to focus the back seven on stopping the passing attack. This game, more than Sakerlina is a measuring stick to the improvements the defensive staff have brought to Chapel Hill. 

Prediction Time

While I was doom and gloom early on in this article, I think tomorrow's when we really start to see, what I've considered a job saving hire in naming Gene Chizik the Defensive Coordinator. I expect Carolina to force Illinois to be one dimensional and for Carolina's front seven to get after the Wes Lunt. Lunt and the Illinois offense will put up some points, but it wont be anywhere near of the figures we saw under the previous defensive administration. Expect Carolina to feed Hood early and often as the offense continues to improve and gets back to finishing drives in the red zone. The difference in this game is the defensive Coaching Staff's ability to make adjustments against the Illini attack that puts up a couple early scores.

UNC 33 - Illinois 24

Go Heels. Go America.

Have a great weekend y'all.

WFP